New Era in Ethiopia

By Fitsum G.

May 12th, 2005

And, perhaps to the surprise of many, the Maskal Square EPRDF rally seemed absolutely imposing, impressive, most likely unprecedented, in the last decade or so. There was this tremendous flood of people, almost all dressed up in white (the organizers had distributed white t-shirts and paper caps and flags with the emblem 'bee' on it, to almost all who attended the rally!), gathered in a packed-to-the-limit square, chanting and shouting.

The procession began very early in the morning as thousands of residents, all well organized and led by their various party social category leaders, social and professional party-inspired associations, kebeles and weredas, holding placards promising absolute support and faith to the party, while reserving utter condemnation and rejection to opposition parties. The main chosen slogan was: "With EPRDF, the Future is Bright". These people were invited to attend the rally to show their relentless support for 'a peaceful election process', and some who were not necessarily party supporters did attend the rally, according to claims by CUD, Coalition for Unity and Democracy with this idea in mind. Chanting for a free and peaceful electoral process was after all the prayer and will of all, CUD argued.

Be that as it may, the fact is when the Chairman of EPRDF Meles Zenawi appeared at the podium, right at the middle of the square, the people chanted and applauded in tribulation. The Chairman was seen, visibly taken by emotion, (as he had never attended such a massive rally of his party's supporters) and began addressing the boisterous crowd There were even reports that he would have wanted to mingle straight with the crowd, and perhaps exchange affectionate salutes and embraces with the supporters, but had to desist upon the advice of his security corps. In any event, he told the crowd that the party would work vigorously to make the upcoming Ethiopian millennium (three years from now) a bright future of prosperity for citizens. There were slogans condemning the opposition, and later the chairman exhorted the public that if they stood in solidarity, they could beat not only the opposition forces at the election, but also poverty itself.

There was naturally huge enthusiasm about this massive show of popularity, and might, among both supporters of EPRDF as well as neutrals. Opposition forces might even have been taken aback by the organisation and grandeur of the event. Perhaps, they could have been concerned about the impact of the rally that in a way might have diminished their side's ambitions. And they were eagerly waiting for their turn, the day after.

On the morrow, Sunday, May 8th 2005, it was 'the day of the opposition', 'the day of CUD, (Coalition for Unity and Democracy)', more popularly called by its Amharic acronym, 'Kinijit'. In fact, it was 'Kinijit' who (perhaps ahead in many things, compared with the ruling party, in election strategy) first called for their own peaceful mass rally to mark the successful completion of the campaign season. The occasion was intended to rally support and solidarity, but also to chant for peace and democracy in the country. Many illustrious artists, singers and show persons were expected /invited to lead the celebrations (although temporary power failure first, condemned as deliberate by CUD leaders, and the heavy rain next, aborted the continuation of the event! And many have considered that as a Celestial blessing in disguise, as there were too many people packed in the square, and with so much emotion boiling, any thing could have triggered excessive nervousness and what not. A stampede there would have had incalculable damage perhaps a massacre of people, specially the weaker ones!) Many talk of the successful gathering as a huge 'miracle'! Many remarked, we should really thank God for that!

Now, the size of the gathering must have impressed every one, including the organizers. The numbers vary from a minimum of a million to four, with no credible scientific estimate available. And as people were indirectly discouraged by government from attending such a gathering on security grounds, and many would have expected that as there was cast some doubt that the gathering might not be totally peaceful, people would have shunned it. However, evidently it contradicted every pessimistic prevision, and resulted miraculously peaceful.

Furthermore, the assumption/allegation that the core support of Kinijit allegedly came from the jobless, and former demobilized soldiers, (a fiery mix!), it was easy to perceive that security could be at real risk, and any agitation or provocation by some splinter group, could degenerate to non stoppable violence, was expected to discourage people from taking the risk. But the leaders of Kinijit had warned the government that it had the responsibility and duty, as government, to secure and guarantee the peaceful conclusion of the rally, and avoid any provocation and the like, and that the supporters of CUD/Kinijit were only peaceful, peace loving, and not interested in creating turmoil. (And that was what exactly happened to later deserve the gratitude from both sides, government and opposition). Besides, there were other social events that appeared deliberately intended to rival the CUD rally. Certain voices spread, telling people that the rally was postponed; the Municipality had prepared a tour by bus of condominium sites seeing; the final day of Ethiopian Athletics Championship, that was postponed from Saturday to Sunday. Nevertheless, all these series of events did not impact notably on the rally. In fact, the crowd began pouring to the square well ahead of the scheduled time in a sort of anticipation of the rally and by 11 o'clock the square was already full! People were enjoying themselves, in great mood, in absolute delight, chanting as if it was a true holiday, reminiscent of Timket, (Epiphany) or Demera, (Maskal) celebrations.

Supporters of 'Kinijit' were every where in the city, heading to Maskal Square, and the theme of the day was just 'Kinijit Wins'! 'Vote Kinijit!', 'Kinijit is Peace', 'Kinijit is Freedom', 'Kinijit is Knowledge' etc! There were not the buses, prepared or hired by the ruling party for its rally as the day before; there were no t-shirts, capes, plastic bottles of water, handed for free, as the day before. Here, the whole crowd came the way they could, the way they managed, the vast majority on foot, in groups, chanting slogans and songs, dancing. Private taxis, minibuses offered free lift, transporting happy and cheerful people. And it was really an amazing, exciting show of solidarity and friendship. Touring the entire city, one could see how much people felt free, and friendly, throughout the occasion. There were no clashes, no animosities, no motive for fear of aggression. Man young ladies even wore jewelry,but the attention of the public was focussed only on supporting their chosen party. It was a sort of a miracle really! Clearly, by any standard or parameter, the occasion was much more colourful, eventful and impressive than the day before.

It was evident that the first victory was already accomplished by the organizers and leaders of the CUD. The Chairman of Kinijit, Engineer Hailu Shawel stood at the podium, and first invited the entire public for a minute of silence in honour of all those who fell for freedom. That moment was considered and hailed as a freedom commemoration. The leaders then talked about an 'anticipation of victory' on election day. They said that a week from that day, power would pass to the public, from arbitrary and dictatorial rule and all this without firing one bullet. That was the force of democracy, they insisted. They repeated a revised/rectified version of what the EPRDF chairman had said the day before, that such a flood of crowd did not need to cheat in the elections, amending it to, 'such a crowd that came here without being facilitated in any way by the party, without being lured by any incentives, or pressed by influence, does not have problems to win the elections, using only the voter card!

The difference between the two rallies is perhaps more than what one captures at a first glance. Saturday's rally was well organized and conducted by the ruling party (and could not be expected otherwise). Perhaps a lot of resources were invested in it. Its organization was meticulous, thanks to its rich experience, its various agents in power (such as kebeles, woredas, government offices, as well as various associations such as the youth, workers, women, schools etc) . All were exhorted to attend the rally, and kebele inner circles were roaming from door to door, inviting people to go, (and distributing t-shirts and flags with the emblem of the party). Slogans were distributed and held by all categories of people, and there were four hundred ad hoc buses hired and prepared for people to be transported from far off kebeles to the square with the intention of mobilizing as many people as possible. There were even gossip of reports of pocket money granted to some in the form of 'per diem' for apparently attending the rally, (not a totally unusual strategy in such events) leaving their private businesses unattended for half a day. And it eventually paid off, because whoever threw a glance at the square would have wondered, 'where do all these people come from? And how would such a party lose any election?

At this point, a few considerations appear imperative to complete the picture. In the first place, were all those people ready to vote for EPRDF? Were they all necessarily party members or supporters? Or were there also those, either obliged indirectly or pushed by certain peer pressure, or because they did not lose anything by being there? After all, it should not be dismissed that the organizers were the undisputed/sole rulers of the country, the city's kebele and woreda structures, and it is known how powerful these are amongst citizens. Secondly, many people appeared very young, many of them students in groups, led to the square. How many of these are eligible to vote? But still they did contribute to the fanfare and colour. More significantly, however, some were showing signs of the CUD party ,'two fingers with a victory sign ' as not being exactly supporters of EPRDF. Perhaps they were there with the only idea of paying tribute to the peaceful electoral process.

Conversely, Sunday's rally was organized in a different way. Roads were open and they had to be closed by the pressure, and sheer number of the masses occupying them. The people came mainly on foot, and did not have any one monolithic organisation that facilitated their transport to and from the square. What brought them to the square was sheer enthusiasm to show and reiterate their support to Kinijit. Some may not even vote for Kinijit but definitely took the occasion to express their complaints against the ruling party. And it all appeared spontaneous. It was really an interminable flux and mix of people, as never experienced under the sky of Addis. So much so that the mass rally of the previous day seemed comparatively 'little'. Without exaggeration, if the comparison is in sheer numbers, and Saturday's people were estimated 1.2 million, Sunday's could very easily be at least twice as many! The exhibited public enthusiasm could induce any one that the election result may be beyond the reach of the ruling party.

However, beyond the enthusiasm and emotions of these two rallies, we ought to sit down and ponder on the significance of these rallies. In the first place, we should assume and perhaps more than hope (and pray!) that the elections would be conducted freely and peacefully. And if so, perhaps the hardest obstacle has been overcome, the greatest success has been achieved. And for this we need the summed vigilance and collaboration of every one.

Secondly, however, not all those who 'attended' the rallies were eligible voters, and not even those who were actually eligible did register to vote. This is too bad. The sheer size of the rallies could thus be misleading. Victory at the polls involves much more than sheer demonstration of figures on the road. It is what happens at the booths that will decide the fate of this country. Many might even not know where they put their cards, which they took four months ago. (I myself had to search all my belongings before I could recover the card!) The problem is although the government did encourage every one to register and take their voting card to exercise their voting rights, people did not have enough consciousness or conviction that things could perhaps change. If the registration was carried out today, the matter would obviously be very different. Many did not even bother to go the kebele registration stands to take them. Many considered it as a superfluous, useless exercise, believing that there was bound to be no difference whether they voted or not as the ruling parties would continue to rule any way! And here was the prime miscalculation or mistake. With all the debates and campaigns undertaken and transmitted 'live' on the electronic media, people are now well aware of why, who and where to elect representatives.

It is true that democracy has a hard time throughout Africa. It is even truer that in Ethiopia democratic culture has shallow roots. We know that in other countries governments are changed by the ballot, not violence and bullets, leaving exceptions. This time around perhaps Ethiopia as well might experience such wonderful transition. Certainly the beginning seems already heralded and no one can expect a U-turn. Ethiopians have shown how mature and ready they are to experience and live democracy. How were the two rallies treated by the media? Well, it was mixed. As the media in Ethiopia is sharply, dichotomized, either government supported and hence almost official, or private, and almost always against the incumbent government, we could say that the coverage was also partisan or at least not as neutral as it needed to be. The Saturday rally, as the government's rally, was amply covered, including 'live' and direct interviews on FM Addis Radio, sound bites taken from the square. The PM's speech was well covered by the electronic and print media, including the chanting and dancing. All the positive sides of the rally were reflected, and it should be said the government has capitalized successfully on the event. We could also say that the message was well delivered. On the other hand, opposition forces were portrayed as an obstacle to peace and prosperity, 'forces of evil and destruction,' and hence not to appeal to peaceful people.

Until the next day, this message remained prominent. The next day's rally was reported as almost a routine news (with yes a large gathering, but most of whom dismissed as young and jobless people and hence with dangerous/vengeful tendencies). The overall image portrayed was as 'negative' as possible. The positive side of an entire population appeared to be intentionally neglected. And in a sense the public media has failed what could have been the simple test of magnanimous neutrality, if not enthusiastic coverage. But a 'better' perhaps more reasonable coverage of the event had to wait only until the private papers of the following days got printed and circulated, and the TV airtime allotted to party contenders came. At least, then the right picture of the rally was transmitted, and every one could see the difference in the coverage by the public media with their own eyes. This must have disappointed many and there were criticisms against such public media 'boycott'.

In conclusion, what was very significant (and above any partisanship) was that both rallies ended without accidents and violence, something considered by many as a miracle. Ethiopia needs many of these miracles, in its coming days and weeks, and perhaps years, as they are going to be a question of democracy, peace and stability, or otherwise!

What is evident from these two rallies is that people are now really being very conscious about the electoral process. An emerging party attracting so much support should be recorded as a great success for the kind of campaign that the likes of Dr Berhanu, and Ato Lidetu must have been carrying out at the same footing with big government fish such as key ministers. A party that was established only a few months ago competing on an equal footing with a party that has been in power for the last fourteen years, (and organized for the last thirty years), should be considered as remarkable. The question is 'what would have happened had the Kinijit party been formed much earlier and got organized and campaigned on level ground with EPRDF?''What would have happened if people had taken their voting cards when it was announced that they should?' And finally 'what would have happened had opposition parties had the same kind of facilities and resources as the ruling party, the same propaganda machine to deploy? One thing is for sure, and that is things in Ethiopia, politics in Ethiopia, will never be the same after May 15, 2005. Rather, we don't even have to wait until the election date, because May 8's experience may have put across a loud and clear message: Ethiopia's future is definitely tied to a peoples government. And such government cannot afford to disregard the public's voice.